The EU is developing fresh sanctions but is hesitant to use them. After passing 10 sanctions packages after Russia’s attempted invasion of Ukraine, the EU is proposing a new tool to penalize countries that facilitate sanctions evasion. If third nations, like Central Asia, don’t comply with Western sanctions against Moscow or can’t explain a dramatic increase in trade in forbidden items, the EU will punish them.
According to new analysis by a group of European experts, the sanctions have reduced direct EU shipments of sanctions to Russia, while imports from non-sanctioning countries have replaced only 25% of missing volumes. However, Russia’s exports to Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Armenia have increased. Cell phones, PCs, and military microchips may be rerouted, according to this evidence.
One inquiry concluded that Russian-owned local enterprises in Kazakhstan helped bring sensitive technologies like drones and microelectronics to Russia. The EU believes more countries will comply by putting a gun on the table. The Wednesday draft plan seen by POLITICO scaled down that proposal. German worries prompted this. They worry it would damage diplomatic relations and push countries toward Russia and China. According to a May 5 discussion document acquired by POLITICO, Berlin wants to target corporations rather than countries that re-export sanctioned commodities to Russia.
The European Commission included protections to appease doubters. The latest sanctions proposal takes a more gradual approach to targeting third countries. Such tactics are “exceptional, last resort measures.” In the latest draft, the Commission must prove that “alternative measures taken have been ineffective” before sanctioning third nations.
The Commission has added protections to the proposal twice to address countries’ concerns, even though sanctions experts say the instrument must be credible to operate. Anti-circumvention is not the sole issue. Greece and Hungary refuse to allow Ukraine to name their companies as “war sponsors.” Before accepting the fines, Athens and Budapest want some of their enterprises removed. Three EU ambassadors expect a package deal next week. EU envoys will consult before their June 7 meeting. One stated, “An agreement is within reach,” but the timeframe is “still hard to predict.”
News on SNBC13.com
